The Impact of Climate Change on the Aridity Index in Jordan: Integrating Statistical Models and Geographic Information Systems

Document Type : Original Article

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Yarmouk University

Abstract

This study aims to determine the impact of climate change on the Aridity Index in Jordan based on long-term climatic records of a 51-year period. The effect of the change in the monthly and annual general trend of both temperature and precipitation is reflected in the change in the values of DE Martonne's Aridity Index (Iar-DM). This is done by integrating statistical methods and geographic information systems (GIS) in addition to creating maps of climatic classifications for Jordan, according to Iar-DM, based on (GIS). The percentage of wet years in which the amount of rain exceeded the general average for the first period 1970-1982 was 62%, and the dry years in which the average temperature exceeded the general average for the same period was 8%. However, for the last fourth period, 2008-2020, the percentage of drought years in which rainfall was less than the general average was 100%, and the dry years in which the average temperature exceeded the general average also amounted to 100% for the same period. As well, the percentage the arid and semi-arid climatic regions reached 92.2% of the total area of Jordan, while the humid and semi-humid climatic regions constituted only about 7.2%.

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